We said on June 5 that the late ballots were breaking toward Sharon Kalani, and that she was favored to pass George Chen. She has. Kalani now leads 18,803 to 18,408, by 395 votes, her first lead since the polls closed.
Two things make that lead hard to reverse: turnout, and the makeup of the late vote.
Turnout is climbing
Start with what is certain. 37,211 votes are counted in the mayor's race, 38.5% of every registered voter in Torrance, and counting is not done. Actual turnout is higher, since not every voter marks the mayor line.
Counting the full ballot, we estimate about 42% of registered voters are in so far, on track to finish near 45%, with 50% the ceiling. The last comparable election came in around 38%. That is high for a Torrance municipal race. Most of the vote is already in, which leaves less room for the late ballots to change who leads.
Why a Chen comeback is unlikely
Chen led by 1,108 on election night. That lead has shrunk at every count since: 1,108, then 952, 812, 359, 44, and now a 395-vote deficit. Kalani has won every batch counted since June 3, taking 56 to 60% of the last three.
To climb back, Chen cannot just win the votes that are left. He has to win them big. With 2,000 to 5,000 still out, he would need to take them by 8 to 20 points. They are breaking the other way, 12 to 20 points toward Kalani. A reversal would mean that pattern flipping by 25 to 30 points, and five days of returns show no sign of it.
Why the late ballots lean her way
The people who vote early are not the people who vote late. Older voters and Republicans tend to vote early or in person, so theirs are counted first; younger and more independent voters send theirs in later, so theirs come last. It is a well-documented California pattern, and it usually pushes late results toward Democrats.
Both mayoral candidates here are registered Republicans, so the usual party explanation does not apply. The late ballots are simply breaking toward Kalani, drop after drop, with few left to break back.
Down the ballot
The three council races are set. Kartsonis leads Kaji by about 20 points in District 1, Sheikh leads Mauno by about 17 in District 3, and Lieu sits near 59% in the three-way District 5, well ahead of Brooks and Ward. Those margins have held or grown, and leads that size do not fall on the ballots still out.
Treasurer is the exception, the only race still close. Mattucci leads Griffiths by 602, with Deemer third, a lead that has narrowed at each of the last four drops. Griffiths has won the recent batches, but only narrowly, and he would need the rest to break much harder his way than they have. A real chance, but under a coin flip by our read.
When we will know
The county posts once a day through certification on June 26. Watch June 10: once the last mailed ballots arrive and are processed, the count stops growing, and treasurer likely settles with it.
We will not email after every drop. The live count on the site updates as the county posts new tallies, so follow it there any time, and we will write again when the result is final.
See you at certification,
Aaron Altamura
Methodology. Vote totals are unofficial Los Angeles County returns as of June 7 (results.lavote.gov); margins and daily changes are calculated from those returns. Turnout figures are Torrance Watch estimates, not official counts. The county reports ballots only countywide, never by city, so we estimate Torrance's total from its most-voted local contest, grossed up for the ballots that skip that line (the undervote, historically about 7 to 13%); the estimate sits in a band of about 41 to 44% and rises with each drop. The one figure we are sure of: 37,211 votes are counted in the mayor's race, 38.5% of the 96,606 registered Torrance voters (California Secretary of State 15-day Report of Registration). Because not every voter marks the mayor line, total ballots and turnout run a few points higher, and both rise as counting continues. On why later ballots skew younger and more independent, see the linked analysis. We report the count and who leads; we do not call races.