Kalani is now favored to overtake Chen

1️⃣ Start with the county. Across LA County, about 37 percent of registered voters are expected to vote this year, roughly 2.2 million ballots out of 5.9 million registered once the ones still arriving are counted. That is up sharply from the 2022 mayoral cycle, when county turnout was about 28 percent, and the county is most of the way to counting this year's.

2️⃣ Torrance turnout > LA County turnout. Torrance turns out higher than the county in elections like this one. When the city's mayor is on the ballot, Torrance turnout runs about 9 to 10 points above the county's. That gap narrows when overall turnout is up, as it is this year.

3️⃣ Estimate total # of Torrance ballots. We take LA County's turnout, scale it up given historical Torrance turnout data, and estimate 45 percent turnout in Torrance, or ~43,600 ballots in total.

4️⃣ Account for incomplete/voided ballots. Not every counted ballot includes a vote for mayor, and some ballots may be marked incorrectly, making them invalid. We estimate that 8 or 9 percent of the ballots are incomplete or voided. So, of the 43,600 ballots cast, about 39,900 included a vote for mayor.

5️⃣ Subtract what's already counted. 32,301 ballots have already been counted, leaving roughly 7,600 more.

These numbers change if turnout runs higher or lower than past elections, which is why our online estimate shows a range of outstanding ballots, about 5,500 to 9,500.

There is a reason the late vote keeps leaning in Kalani's favor. The voters who turned ballots in first skewed older and more Republican. The outstanding ones lean younger and more independent, and that is the group tilting toward Kalani.

This is not an official call, and, as of now, Kalani is still behind. But the evidence favors her to overtake. The last three ballot drops have broken in her favor by significant margins, and a meaningful number of ballots are still out. Chen keeps his lead only if the count is nearly done or the trend sharply reverses. The evidence doesn't support either of those scenarios. As more ballots are counted, the likeliest outcome is that Kalani overtakes Chen.

The three city council races look decided. Kartsonis leads Kaji by about 19 points in District 1, Sheikh leads Mauno by about 16 in District 3, and Lieu is over 50 percent in the three-way District 5. Margins that wide do not close on the late vote.

City treasurer is the exception, the closest race after mayor. Mattucci leads Griffiths by about 850 votes, 45 to 42 percent, with Deemer third at 13 percent and an estimated 7,000 ballots still out. To pull even, Griffiths would need to win the rest by about 12 points over Mattucci, a steeper climb than Kalani's, but close enough that the late vote could still move it.

The county posts a new count most afternoons through June 26. The one to watch is June 10. Mailed ballots count if they were postmarked by Election Day and arrive within seven days, so they keep coming in for about a week; by around June 10, once those last arrivals are processed, we should know how many ballots are left. That number is the last thing standing between Kalani and the lead.